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Title: The OSCARS
Description: predictions and discussion


Big F'N Swigg - February 27, 2005 09:13 PM (GMT)
I've been meaning to do this, and it's my last chance, so here are my predicitons:

Best Picture
THE AVIATOR (Miramax)
FINDING NEVERLAND (Miramax)
MILLION DOLLAR BABY (Warner Bros.)
RAY (Universal Pictures)
SIDEWAYS (Fox Searchlight)

My prediction: Million Dollar Baby
Why?: Sideways is a comedy, and thus doesn't stand a chance. Finding Neverland is a great movie, but it's too syrupy, The Aviator is there to respect Scorsese. This leaves it between Ray and Million Dollar Baby, and since Ray is a bio-pic, Million Dollar Baby gets it.

Achievement in Directing
Martin Scorsese for THE AVIATOR (Miramax)
Clint Eastwood for MILLION DOLLAR BABY (Warner Bros.)
Taylor Hackford for RAY (Universal Pictures)
Alexander Payne for SIDEWAYS (Fox Searchlight)
Mike Leigh for VERA DRAKE (Fine Line Features)

My prediction: I'd say Scorsese.
Why:He's had better films that lost, but this will get it. Ray doesn't deserve best director, as the directing wasn't "brilliant," and Eastwood won't get it because Baby will get the best pic nod. I can't say anything about Vera Drake, because I haven't seen it, and again Sideways is a comedy.

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Don Cheadle for HOTEL RWANDA (United Artists)
Johnny Depp for FINDING NEVERLAND (Miramax)
Leonardo DiCaprio for THE AVIATOR (Miramax)
Clint Eastwood for MILLION DOLLAR BABY (Warner Bros.)
Jamie Foxx for RAY (Universal Pictures)

My Prediction: Cheadle.
Why: His performance in Hotel Rwanda is amazing. It's his "breakout" role, and he deserves the win. Depp won't get it because Neverland's performance was equally his and the children's. Dicaprio may get it, but he's still seen as a teen heartthrob and that will damage his shot. Foxx won't get it because he'll get the best supporting nod, and Eastwood is nominated in so much that it should just be an honor for him.

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Alda for THE AVIATOR (Miramax)
Thomas Haden Church for SIDEWAYS (Fox Searchlight)
Jamie Foxx for COLLATERAL (Dreamworks SKG)
Morgan Freeman for MILLION DOLLAR BABY (Warner Bros.)
Clive Owen for CLOSER (Columbia Pictures)

My prediction: Foxx
Why: Foxx will get it because Cheadle will get best actor. His performance in Collateral is just as good as his performance in Ray. If you ask me, it's better because he didn't have a real life person to base his performance off of. Freeman will get overlooked again.

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening - BEING JULIA (Sony Pictures Classics)
Catalina Sandino Moreno - MARIA FULL OF GRACE (Fine Line Features)
Imelda Staunton - VERA DRAKE (Fine Line Features)
Hilary Swank for MILLION DOLLAR BABY (Warner Bros.)
Kate Winslet for ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND (Focus Features)

My prediction: I can't really say.
Why: It looks llike Swank is going to pull this one again. I've heard Bening is great in Julia, but I haven't seen it so I can't say. I do think that it will come down to the three, as Maria and Vera Drake aren't as widely available.

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett for THE AVIATOR (Miramax)
Laura Linney - KINSEY (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Virginia Madsen for SIDEWAYS (Fox Searchlight)
Sophie Okonedo - HOTEL RWANDA (United Artists)
Natalie Portman for CLOSER

My prediction: Okonedo
Why: Though Linney did a great job in Kinsey, many will see Okonedo's performance as more challenging. And Portman plays a stripper, which doesn't do much good with Academy voters.

Best Original Screenplay
THE AVIATOR (Miramax) by John Logan
ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND (Focus Features) by Charlie Kaufman, Michel Gondry, Pierre Bismuth
HOTEL RWANDA (United Artists) by Terry George, Keir Pearson
THE INCREDIBLES (Disney/Pixar) by Brad Bird
VERA DRAKE (Fine Line Features) by Mike Leigh

My pick: If Sunshine doesn't get this, I'm baffled.
Why: Though Incredibles was great, it wasn't inrcredible. Rwanda and Aviator are both based off of real life activities, and I can't say much for Vera Drake having never seen it. This gives Eternal Sunshine the best shot.

Best Adapted Screenplay
BEFORE SUNSET (Warner Independent Pictures) by Richard Linklater, Kim Krizan, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke
FINDING NEVERLAND (Miramax) by David Magee
MILLION DOLLAR BABY (Warner Bros.) by Paul Haggis
THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES (Focus Features) by Jose Rivera
SIDEWAYS (Fox Searchlight) by Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor

My pick: I think Neverland wil get this, but I would also give Motorcycle Diaries and Sideways a chance as well.
Why: Before Sunset, while being good, is a sequel. There was a lot of interesting creativity, but it's still a sequel. Million Dollar Baby is getting best pic and Sideways is a comedy. This will be a makeup award for whoever doesn't get nods elsewhere, basically.

Best Animated Feature Film
THE INCREDIBLES (Disney/Pixar)
SHARK TALE (Dreamworks SKG)
SHREK 2 (Dreamworks SKG)

My pick: The Incredibles
Why: Do I need to say why?

------------------------
Note: Vera Drake could actually come out with an award or two, as I just found out it's about a woman who induces miscarriages in 1950's England. And you know those "limousine liberals" in Hollywood love feminism. [/sarcasm]

Big F'N Swigg - February 28, 2005 04:47 AM (GMT)
I got 3. But some of mine were just wishful thikning, so not bad.

whitemilesdavis - February 28, 2005 02:12 PM (GMT)
I was glad to see Foxx win best actor. I thought it was on of the best performances I'd seen in years. ( He was great in Collateral as well). I was afraid he wouldn't get it because the Oscars have a history of rewarding a body of work rather than a single performance.

dynamite kido - February 28, 2005 03:08 PM (GMT)
Personally I thought Foxx was a lock the entire time. When you do a hell of a job in a biopic and the person that it's about dies recently.......that award was his from the moment he was a nominee. I was rather dissappointed by the Oscars this year as not much was a surprise. I could have called 99.9% of these before hand. This is the first year in a long time where I could say that, so it was rather lackluster IMO.

whitemilesdavis - February 28, 2005 04:40 PM (GMT)
Yeah, it's just that Foxx is not an Oscar type actor. They typically don't like comedians, black guys, or people in their first great role. Foxx is all three of those. I saw a screw job coming.

The show itself is so boring. On one show they should present. Actor, Actress, Supporting roles, Film, and director. Nobody cares about the rest anyway.

dynamite kido - February 28, 2005 07:31 PM (GMT)
QUOTE (whitemilesdavis @ Feb 28 2005, 10:40 AM)
Yeah, it's just that Foxx is not an Oscar type actor. They typically don't like comedians, black guys, or people in their first great role. Foxx is all three of those. I saw a screw job coming.

The show itself is so boring. On one show they should present. Actor, Actress, Supporting roles, Film, and director. Nobody cares about the rest anyway.

I never watch the whole show, but I've always been curious as to how the hell they fill 4 hours of TV.....

SamoaRowe - February 28, 2005 07:49 PM (GMT)
It wasn't that long this year.

One year (I think 2000) I swear to God the fucking show would not end. I remember it was after midnight, there are still a bunch of awards left, and they're going "Okay, time for ANOTHER montage!" Piece of shit year.

They kept the BS down to a minimum this year and took some measures to save on time. It was good.

Big F'N Swigg - February 28, 2005 09:55 PM (GMT)
QUOTE (TheManErnieRowe @ Feb 28 2005, 01:49 PM)
It wasn't that long this year.

One year (I think 2000) I swear to God the fucking show would not end. I remember it was after midnight, there are still a bunch of awards left, and they're going "Okay, time for ANOTHER montage!" Piece of shit year.

They kept the BS down to a minimum this year and took some measures to save on time. It was good.

Wasn't that the year that Halle Berry thanked every single black actor/actress ever? And yelled at them for starting to play the music?

SamoaRowe - February 28, 2005 10:13 PM (GMT)
QUOTE (BigSwiggy @ Feb 28 2005, 03:55 PM)
QUOTE (TheManErnieRowe @ Feb 28 2005, 01:49 PM)
It wasn't that long this year.

One year (I think 2000) I swear to God the fucking show would not end. I remember it was after midnight, there are still a bunch of awards left, and they're going "Okay, time for ANOTHER montage!" Piece of shit year.

They kept the BS down to a minimum this year and took some measures to save on time. It was good.

Wasn't that the year that Halle Berry thanked every single black actor/actress ever? And yelled at them for starting to play the music?

It might possibly be. I'm not a big fan of Halle Berry or her "talents" so that was a tedious show for me.

I think "Catwoman" made things even though :P

prof_plague - March 1, 2005 12:50 AM (GMT)
QUOTE (TheManErnieRowe @ Feb 28 2005, 04:13 PM)
I think "Catwoman" made things even though :P

At least she won the Razzie for Worst Actress. :D

So - I get a few right. I wish I didn't change some of my predictions on that Yahoo game though, I wouldn't have gotten most of them right.

whitemilesdavis - March 1, 2005 01:45 AM (GMT)
Am I the only person who liked Catwoman?

dynamite kido - March 1, 2005 05:01 AM (GMT)
QUOTE (whitemilesdavis @ Feb 28 2005, 07:45 PM)
Am I the only person who liked Catwoman?

That depends......are you Halle's manager?

SamoaRowe - March 1, 2005 12:50 PM (GMT)
QUOTE (prof_plague @ Feb 28 2005, 06:50 PM)
QUOTE (TheManErnieRowe @ Feb 28 2005, 04:13 PM)
I think "Catwoman" made things even though  :P

At least she won the Razzie for Worst Actress. :D

So - I get a few right. I wish I didn't change some of my predictions on that Yahoo game though, I wouldn't have gotten most of them right.

Yeah, as much as I like Cate Blanchett, I was mad when she won because that meant I was wrong about my prediction of Virginia Madsen going over.

Sideways was robbed :P

Big F'N Swigg - March 1, 2005 02:52 PM (GMT)
QUOTE (whitemilesdavis @ Feb 28 2005, 07:45 PM)
Am I the only person who liked Catwoman?

YES

How could anyone like that?

prof_plague - March 1, 2005 04:34 PM (GMT)
QUOTE (BigSwiggy @ Mar 1 2005, 08:52 AM)
QUOTE (whitemilesdavis @ Feb 28 2005, 07:45 PM)
Am I the only person who liked Catwoman?

YES

How could anyone like that?

I could. ...May be one day. As I am a fan of crap.

All started with someone buying me "Glitter", and then "Bring It On", and even, yes, the WWF: WrestleMania CD. And sometime soon, "Gigli".

SamoaRowe - March 1, 2005 05:02 PM (GMT)
QUOTE (prof_plague @ Mar 1 2005, 10:34 AM)
QUOTE (BigSwiggy @ Mar 1 2005, 08:52 AM)
QUOTE (whitemilesdavis @ Feb 28 2005, 07:45 PM)
Am I the only person who liked Catwoman?

YES

How could anyone like that?

I could. ...May be one day. As I am a fan of crap.

All started with someone buying me "Glitter", and then "Bring It On", and even, yes, the WWF: WrestleMania CD. And sometime soon, "Gigli".

Hey, I'm the one who bought you Glitter and the WrestleMania cd, I want credit, dammit ;)

Big F'N Swigg - March 1, 2005 09:50 PM (GMT)
My best friend likes Bring It On. He even liked the Bring It On sequel.

But he's half french, so take that however you want.

whitemilesdavis - March 2, 2005 04:46 PM (GMT)
QUOTE (BigSwiggy @ Mar 1 2005, 08:52 AM)
QUOTE (whitemilesdavis @ Feb 28 2005, 07:45 PM)
Am I the only person who liked Catwoman?

YES

How could anyone like that?

Well, I took it for what it was. I didn't need it to have a deep story as long as the action was good, the effects were cool, and Halle looked good in the suit. I got what I payed for.




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