Fujinami's failed coup, New Japan's TV deal & New Japan's future

by Dave Ditch

I was all set to avoid writing about "the business end" this week. I got a great puro-centric Q&A with Mike Quackenbush, I spoke with Jimmy Yang, and there are who knows how many great matches to extol in the All Japan Archives. Then New Japan had to go and have their shareholders meeting, leading to Fujinami's revolt. And I simply can't ignore it.

I figured that things would settle a bit with Yukes in charge, Choshu not being quite as overbearing, and the Lesnar lawsuit dying down (now all the way to 'dead'). Instead, Yukes continued to clean house and get a firm grip around Antonio Inoki's throat, something that appeals to me quite a lot. Fujinami has taken things to such a degree that there could be next to no front-office continuity from a year, between Yukes firings and assorted people quitting. Fujinami's status as someone who's an Inoki man yet not an Inoki stooge placed him in a certain limbo from the beginning and made his role somewhat difficult to describe. The new blog http://blog.livedoor.jp/strongstyleblog/ from the webmaster of puroresufan.com goes into more detail, and though the text can be tricky (try copy/pasting it into a blank file) it's well worth the read.

There are a lot of scenarios that can play out here. If Fujinami stays, shuts his mouth and takes his paychecks he'll have no political stroke yet wouldn't be fired because of his value. If he leaves, he could retire, or he could try the hypothetical MUGA promotion with ex-New Japan wrestlers and employees as was speculated several weeks ago. Either way if Fujinami goes then his value goes with him, a value that includes a deep relationship with many wrestlers and connections to some vital local promoters. The MUGA fed would likely be another addition to the ranks of the C-level feds, nothing that would seriously impact the scene, but it would look bad for New Japan to have yet another breakaway promotion caused by political drama.

The situation goes beyond Fujinami. Yukes has created the impression that it's dissatisfied with a number of things about New Japan's practices and non-wrestling employees, so additional heads may roll. Yukes will probably not hire replacements from within the wrestling community, in hopes of not having similar mistakes return. Problem is, this isn't just another acquisition. Pro wrestling is a business unlike any other, especially in Japan where ties to the underworld effect everything from venues to promoting shows to funding. How can a publicly-held corporation deal with the unwritten rules, contradictions and seediness associated with the wrestling industry? Maybe Yukes is tougher than I give them credit for and will make it work, and maybe better than ever. But there's one potential problem even Yukes can't overcome.

In a few months New Japan will have to renew its contract with TV Asahi, its broadcast TV partner. As with the US, wrestling has special hurdles to overcome on television. It's that much worse in Japan where ratings fluctuate more and networks are sometimes overeager to make changes. Asahi has already shown some dissatisfaction in the past and made changes to reduce the amount of money it gives New Japan. What New Japan's ratings are, I don't know. What they're expected to be, ditto. What I do know is that internal turmoil and half-full major venues won't inspire confidence. Again there are some potential benefits; if Asahi approves of Yukes' housecleaning measures they might be more NJ-friendly than before. The reason why I bring this up is the huge downside potential of the NJ/Asahi renegotiation falling through.

Simply put, the chances of any other major network giving New Japan a deal in Asahi's stead are slim to none. Pro wrestling just isn't a prime-time ratings draw. The best New Japan could do on cable is ESPN-I, which is more on par with something like Fox Sports Net in terms of ratings and importance. Samurai TV is always there but then they air even the tiniest feds. If New Japan loses Asahi, they lose their top means of mainstream exposure and one of their key revenue sources. I don't have to go into the problems that would create.

No matter what happens, New Japan is in the middle of the most dramatic change in its history. It's a top-to-bottom catharsis the likes of which would usually take a decade to unfold. The potential end results run the gamut from salvation to rapid decline, though thankfully out-and-out closure is less likely than Yoshie doing a shooting star press. If Yukes can keep Asahi on board this year and find competent office replacements then New Japan will have ridden out the worst of the storm. If not, things will get very ugly.